This is the new reality of the main event of the World Series of Poker: the pros are the underdogs. It seems almost blasphemous to say, but it’s true. If I was to bet on who this year’s winner is going to be, I wouldn’t pick Gus Hansen or Carlos Mortensen or Lee Watkinson or J.C. Tran or Huck Seed or Robert Mizrachi (all of whom are still very much alive). I would bet on the Field, that nameless faceless mass of amateurs who combined still have less experience at the tables than Doyle Brunson. Why the pessimism?
Let me count the ways:
Sheer Numbers. To win the 2007 main event, the eventual champion is going to have to outlast and outplay 6,357 other players. Of the 6,358 players who entered the event, maybe 300 of them are pros whose names you recognize. That means the amateurs outnumber the pros 20-1. For every Erick Lindgren or Allen Cunningham there are twenty Ethan Steinbergs from Jackson, Wyoming (I’m using him as an example because he’s my buddy and he’s still alive on Day Three). Imagine if the starting field at the British Open numbered 6,000. How would you like Tiger Woods’ chances then? Yes, at this point in the tournament many of the fish have been swallowed, but many still remain. The amateur/pro ratio has surely dropped from 20-1, but it’s still quite high. Out of the 808 players remaining to start the day, I’d say roughly 100 of them were pros. That means the amateur/pro ratio is 8-1. That’s a lot better than 20-1, but still not great. I’m predicting that one big name will make the final table like Allen Cunningham did last year. At that point he (or she) will be up against eight amateurs. While experience is obviously an important factor, there’s still a lot of luck in poker. Unless that pro enters the final day with the chip lead, I don’t see him (or her) taking home the bracelet.
Exhaustion. Many of the amateurs in the main event didn’t play in any of the preliminary events. They’ve been home sleeping in their own beds, resting up for the biggest poker tournament of their lives. They’ve probably been eating well—at the very least they haven’t been subsisting on the ass-meat the Poker Kitchen calls a hamburger. They have probably played in the occasional home game or a few hours a day online, but that’s it. Meanwhile, the pros have been here for six weeks playing poker every single day. Many of them have made Day Twos in dozens of events, which means they’ve put in 14-hour workdays but not necessarily made any money doing it. Many of them have even played in two events at the same time, entering a new event while still battling it out on a Day Two of another. Many of the top players stay at their homes in Las Vegas or at the Bellagio so they’ve been living comfortably, but a high percentage of them have been staying here at the Rio, so close to the action that sleep becomes an afterthought. In short, they’re exhausted. Chris Ferguson is usually one of the more upbeat players I know. He’s always laughing about something. But when I saw him on the eve of the main event he was falling asleep at his table during the $5,000 2-7 lowball event, which may explain why he’s already busted from the main event.
Crazy play. You see certain plays in the main event you just don’t see in other poker tournaments: players risking all their chips on total bluffs, others willing to call big raises with nothing more than bottom pair. Many pros find it easier to play against other pros. Amateurs can often be enigmatic to them. How can you get a read on someone if even he doesn’t know what he’s thinking?
The luck factor. When Johnny Chan won his second world championship in 1988, he had to survive 12 coinflip situations. There were only 167 players entered in the main event that year. Imagine how lucky you have to get to survive a field of 6,358? And it’s not just the race situations you have to win. With thousands of hands being played each hour, we have seen some pretty amazing ones this year. Usually set over set is considered the ultimate cooler. You flop a set of 7s and put all your money in the pot, only to discover that your opponent flopped a set of jacks. Well, how about quads over quads (which actually happened the other day)? Or having your opponent make a royal straight flush (which also happened)? No matter how good of a player you are, there’s nothing you can do in these situations. All you can do is hope they don’t happen to you.
While I think it would be great for poker if Carlos Mortensen won his second championship six years later or Gus Hansen added a World Series title to the three WPT wins he already has, I just don’t see it happening. I’m putting my money on Ethan Steinberg and the rest of the amateurs in the field.
